If we were keeping score on the question of negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel based on the New York meeting on Tuesday, we would have to award Prime Minister Netanyahu two points, the Palestinian President Abbas one point, and President Obama no points. Obama certainly did not get much joy from Netanyahu in New York. In the peace process, as an American negotiator, you can gauge how well you are doing by the number of right wing Israeli settlers protesting outside the Prime Minister's residence after a round of talks. The streets were empty today. Of course, you can always count on the Israeli Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman to tell it like it is without the diplomatic coating that Netanyahu is so careful to preserve. According to the Israeli press, Lieberman said on Wednesday that Netanyahu's summit with Obama was a victory because it took place even though Israel rebuffed Obama's demand on settlements. Member of Knesset Danny Danon, from Likud's right flank was obviously jubilant and, at the same time insulting to President Obama when saying that he hopes "the summit stops the Hollywood movie in which Obama lives."
We do not know what went on in private between Obama and Netanyahu. We don't know if there were promises made. But Dennis Ross, who was in on the meetings, went down this road with me before in negotiations with Netanyahu the last time he was Prime Minister. So Dennis knows that what is said in private does not always occur in fact. And, to be honest, how could the Prime Minister of Israel accommodate a full settlement freeze or a serious lockdown on expansion given the government he has cobbled together. No Israeli Prime Minister has been able to do this in a sustained way in the past, and Netanyahu is a most unlikely candidate to be the exception. Look at the numbers and tell me how Netanyahu could sustain his government if he compromises on the settlements issue. He can't even count on the right wing of his Likud party, let alone Yisrael Beitenu, Jewish Home, or the United Torah Judaism party. George Mitchell knows better. He made it clear after the meeting that a settlement showdown is not a precondition for resuming negotiations. And Netanyahu made clear that the settlements issue can only be considered in the context of the final status negotiations. "But we have to talk in order to talk about it," Netanyahu said.
But what will they talk about? That is the question Obama has to face. If the Israeli coalition government would fall over the settlements issue, would it not be more likely to fall over any compromise or even any gesture on Jerusalem? Or on refugees? And how are we going to negotiate borders without impinging on settlements? This is déjà vu for me. We seem to be fighting our way back to Menahem Begin's formula for Palestinian autonomy - a Palestinian government in the mind but not on the ground. That no doubt would satisfy Prime Minister Netanyahu and his coalition.
But what about the Palestinians? The pressure was not on them in this round. They have just as many internal political problems as the Israelis do. Only in Abu Mazen's case the costs of compromise are likely to be renewed civil war and violence and possibly even his life. So the Palestinians probably sighed a sigh of relief that they got out of New York without having to challenge Hamas and without undercutting their relationship with President Obama while leaving Israel to take the blame.
Perhaps President Obama will have to stop thinking about this problem in the short term and stop looking for a quick fix. It seems clear that no progress is possible on the critical issues so long as the Israeli government continues in its current configuration. And in all probability no progress can really be expected so long as the Palestinians are a hair's breadth away from committing mutual suicide. So perhaps the Palestinian Prime Minister Salem Fayyed has it right. This may be the time for the Palestinians to get their act together and form a credible government in the service of the Palestinian people. And it may be time for Israelis to consider their future and decide whether or not they want peace to be held hostage by a rigid minority of the settler movement. Or we can just mark time until Palestinians living on land from the Jordan river to the Mediterranean outnumber their Jewish neighbors. Then what?
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